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Inside the Healing Trajectory Agent: Flagging Stalled Wounds Before Week 4

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How automated trajectory analysis catches non-healing wounds early, so clinicians escalate before the 50% area-reduction window closes.

The clinical rule is well-known: a wound that hasn't reduced in area by ~50% at four weeks is unlikely to heal on the current plan. The problem is nobody has time to compute that per patient, per week, across a panel of 200.

Why trajectory matters more than any single visit

A single measurement tells you the wound exists. A trajectory tells you whether what you're doing is working. Missed stalls lead to extended care episodes, avoidable amputations, and skin-substitute use that could have been avoided or justified sooner.

See the clinical stakes in When Blood Stops Flowing.

What the agent actually computes

  • Week-over-week percent area reduction, normalized for baseline size.
  • Depth and tissue-type trend (granulation vs. slough vs. eschar).
  • Comparison against expected trajectory for wound etiology (DFU, VLU, pressure injury).
  • Flag threshold tuned per wound type, not a single global cutoff.

More on the methodology: inside the healing trajectory agent.

Where it surfaces

Stalls show up on the healing dashboard as a worklist, not a report. A clinician sees which patients need a plan change this week — not a quarterly QA review.

Why this matters for skin substitutes

Under the 2026 CMS rule, documentation of failed conservative care is non-negotiable for coverage. Automated trajectory evidence builds that record visit by visit. More: skin substitutes after the 2026 CMS rule.

What it replaces

Spreadsheets, monthly chart reviews, and the sinking feeling of realizing at week 8 that a wound stalled at week 3.